Mexico's science ministry is developing a system to forecast sargassum on Caribbean beaches

Mexico is building a scientific system to anticipate mass arrivals of sargassum, the floating seaweed that washes up on the beaches of the Mexican Caribbean. The science ministry (Secihti) is leading the project with 18 institutions and more than 80 specialists, according to its release of October 27, which the Navy (SEMAR) also published. The system will combine satellite information, ocean circulation models and coastal observations.

Its full name is the Integrated Inter-institutional System for Multiscale Monitoring and Forecasting of Pelagic Sargassum in the Mexican Caribbean. Its stated aim is to strengthen existing tools to identify, measure and forecast the seaweed's movement, and to give authorities scientific information to plan their response, particularly in Quintana Roo. Secihti hosted a workshop with scientific institutions and government agencies, among them SEMAR, the environment ministry (SEMARNAT) and the national tourism development fund (Fonatur).

Mathieu Hautefeuille, who heads Secihti's cross-cutting policy unit, said the purpose "no es duplicar ni sustituir los esfuerzos en marcha, sino fortalecerlos" (is not to duplicate or replace the efforts under way, but to strengthen them). The technical lead is Abigail Uribe Martínez, coordinator of the National Oceanographic Data Center at the Autonomous University of Baja California (UABC). The project is linked to the Red Ecos de Sargazo, a Secihti-backed network of more than 25 institutions and 150 researchers.

What the system is meant to deliver

The release lists the expected results:

• stronger satellite monitoring
• forecasts at several scales
• a coastal surveillance network using video systems
• a database of sargassum accumulations
• an interoperable platform for sharing information
• a multi-model forecast service to help plan and coordinate action

It does not say when the system will be running, what it will cost, or whether its forecasts will be open to the public.

A heavy year for sargassum

The project follows a hard season. At a federal briefing on July 30, environment secretary Alicia Bárcena said sargassum had gone from a temporary phenomenon of a few months to one of long and continuous presence, and called 2026 "un año difícil, atípico" (a difficult, atypical year). President Claudia Sheinbaum announced 2 billion pesos for the federal sargassum strategy: more sargassum-collecting ships, more barriers and more equipment for beach collection in Cancún, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos, Tulum and Mahahual. The figures given at the briefing:

Quintana Roo's governor, Mara Lezama, said at the same briefing that the state's monitoring center watches 140 beaches at once by satellite.

What you can check before a beach trip

Until the new system is running, one official tool already open to the public is SATsum, the satellite sargassum early-warning system of CONABIO, Mexico's biodiversity commission. It publishes daily detection maps and 10-day drift forecasts from NASA's MODIS sensors at a resolution of 1 kilometer, with data back to 2010, and from the Copernicus program's Sentinel-3 OLCI sensors at 300 meters. Its monthly alert rates sargassum density for each region on a five-step scale, from low (baja) to extreme (extrema). It also links to live coastal cameras, including one on Akumal Bay, in Tulum.

The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office's general beach advice applies too. In its Mexico travel advice, last updated on October 20, 2026, and still current on October 30, it says: "Sea conditions can be unpredictable, and some beaches are unpatrolled. Follow coastguard and local authority guidance on whether it is safe to swim."